CMHC has released its regular housing market update for Ottawa, which includes some strong predictions for the Ottawa condo market. This report is The Ottawa Housing Market Update and includes a bunch of information and statistics to help get a better idea of the real estate market in Ottawa and where it is headed. Here are some of the main takeaways along with some of my favorite statistics from the report.
MLS Sales Growth & Condo Market Sales
Click to enlarge. Sellers market continues for the condo market in Ottawa.
- Sales have been trending upwards since 2014, with 17,327 sales (in all property types) in 2017 and 17,708 sales in 2018. CMHC is forecasting between 17,600 to 18,600 sales in 2019. They are also forecasting between 17,400 to 18,700 sales for 2020, and between 17,300 to 18,900 sales for 2021.
- Year over year, our entire market has increased 6.1% for sales - from 15,846 ( Jan to October 2018) to 16,808 sales (Jan to October 2019). Of these, condominium apartments saw the strongest growth - 2,346 sales in J-O 2019 vs 1,958 during the same time in 2018 - an almost 20% increase year over year.
- Condominiums make up 24% of the overall sales, which is up from a low of 18.2% in 2015.
- Condo inventory and supply continues to trend lower - 555 units for 2019 vs the highest of 2,022 in 2015.
- A seller’s market continues (see chart)
Ottawa has relatively higher earnings vs Toronto and Ontario on average - per week before taxes
Ottawa
- Ottawa has relatively higher earnings vs Toronto and Ontario - $1,209 vs $1,051 and $1,033 (per week before taxes - YTD to Sept 2019 average.
- Ottawa earnings have grown at the fastest rate in two decades in 2019. 6.9% for YTD to September
- Smaller households (two or fewer persons) have been the majority in Ottawa since 2016. 1 person 28%, 2 persons, 34%, 3 persons 16%, 4 persons 15%, etc.
New Construction and rental
- Fourth-year that rental starts have surpassed condo starts
- Unsold new condo apartment inventory at a historic low.
- Majority of rental units were built between 1960 and 1979
- Nearly one-third of condo apartments are offered for rent in Ottawa
- A significant gap in rent amount on vacant versus occupied units. EX: $222/M for two-bedroom units
- Forecasting the vacancy rate to drop in 2019 to 1.5% (from 1.6% in 2018), then rise in 2020 to 1.7%, and rise again to 1.9% in 2021.
The main take away is that CMHC expects the market to continue on its current path, provided any external factors. Ottawa remains a strong place to invest and our vacancy rate will continue to remain at a healthy rate for investors. We continue to see a rise in population and the demand that it brings for housing. If you would like a copy of the full report, shoot me an email. Questions about the Ottawa condo market? Let’s Chat.
